Dear Luis First of all I am afraid that I cannot speak Castilian so please forgive me on that. I am a computer programmer in the UK and first got interested in the Mexican election of 2nd July after watching the results on the internet and see Calderón overtake AMLO when nearly 98% of the polling stations had been counted. Once the results were posted on the IFE website I noticed a lot of the results defied logic. When the results became available in a downloadable text file on the IFE website I decided to read it into SAS (statistical analysis system) and do some exploring of the data. This enabled me to do some very vigorous checking of the data. The distribution of the null or invalid votes by polling booth is very bizarre. There are some where there are no null votes at all and many where there is over 5% of the total votes are null. It certainly doesn't follow what you would expect - a random binomial pattern. I have also compared the number of votes for each candidate by the turnout or number of people voting out of the nominal list and also by the number of invalid votes recorded at the polling station. I have categorised them and produced two graphs which I am sure you will find interesting. Turnout is categorised by 2% intervals while null is by 1% intervals with absolute zero being a category on its own. Attached is the two graphs and also text file containing the summary of these figures in a table. The table and graphs only show data where there are at least 50 polling stations within that category. The turnout graphs shows there are 5 distinct ranges where one of the main two candidates gets more votes than the other, while the invalid votes shows that Calderón has a clear advantage at polling stations with a low rate of invalid votes. Also of note is the correlation between the APM vote and the number of invlaid votes. The turnout graph has an interesting peak for Calderón when turnout is 70-80%. Please let me know what you think. Best wishes and kind regards Philip Davies BSc (Computing Mathematics)
Attachment:
National Turnout.gif
Description: GIF image
Attachment:
National Invalid votes.gif
Description: GIF image
Summary of votes by Turnout
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|Turnout % |Polling | | | | | | | | | |
| |stations| PAN % | APM % | PBT % | NA % | ASDC % |NonReg %| Null % |Total % | LEAD |
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|20 | 59| 20.0| 37.3| 39.9| 1.6| 0.9| 0.3| 5.4| 19.1| -949|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|22 | 68| 20.2| 35.3| 42.1| 0.7| 1.0| 0.7| 5.4| 21.0| -1372|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|24 | 95| 20.1| 39.6| 37.7| 0.9| 1.2| 0.5| 4.8| 23.1| -1596|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|26 | 142| 19.2| 39.7| 38.8| 1.0| 0.8| 0.5| 4.2| 24.9| -3055|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|28 | 223| 19.5| 38.4| 39.8| 0.7| 1.1| 0.4| 5.0| 27.0| -5248|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|30 | 317| 21.8| 35.9| 39.5| 1.2| 1.2| 0.4| 4.9| 29.0| -7408|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|32 | 462| 24.1| 35.3| 37.7| 1.0| 1.3| 0.6| 4.2| 31.1| -9043|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|34 | 725| 26.8| 33.5| 36.2| 1.2| 1.6| 0.6| 3.7| 33.0| -10946|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|36 | 1088| 28.1| 33.3| 34.9| 1.2| 1.8| 0.7| 3.4| 35.0| -12797|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|38 | 1610| 29.6| 31.1| 35.6| 1.2| 1.9| 0.8| 3.2| 37.0| -18130|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|40 | 2089| 31.6| 29.7| 34.8| 1.2| 2.1| 0.7| 3.1| 39.0| -13532|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|42 | 2844| 32.0| 29.5| 34.4| 1.1| 2.1| 0.8| 3.0| 41.0| -14136|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|44 | 3531| 33.0| 28.5| 34.5| 1.1| 2.0| 0.9| 2.9| 43.0| -11137|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|46 | 4305| 33.4| 28.3| 34.2| 1.1| 2.1| 0.9| 2.9| 45.0| -7933|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|48 | 5130| 34.5| 28.1| 33.2| 1.1| 2.2| 1.0| 2.9| 47.0| 16973|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|50 | 6121| 35.2| 27.2| 33.2| 1.1| 2.3| 1.0| 2.8| 49.0| 31793|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|52 | 7066| 35.6| 26.8| 33.1| 1.1| 2.4| 1.0| 2.7| 51.0| 46791|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|54 | 8001| 35.5| 26.2| 33.7| 1.1| 2.5| 1.0| 2.6| 53.0| 40572|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|56 | 8913| 35.9| 25.1| 34.3| 1.1| 2.6| 0.9| 2.5| 55.0| 43398|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|58 | 9726| 35.7| 23.9| 35.6| 1.1| 2.8| 0.9| 2.4| 56.9| 2323|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|60 | 10161| 35.8| 23.2| 36.2| 1.1| 2.9| 0.8| 2.2| 59.0| -14176|
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(Continued)
Summary of votes by Turnout
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|Turnout % |Polling | | | | | | | | | |
| |stations| PAN % | APM % | PBT % | NA % | ASDC % |NonReg %| Null % |Total % | LEAD |
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|62 | 9953| 36.2| 22.6| 36.5| 1.0| 3.0| 0.8| 2.1| 60.9| -10052|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|64 | 9541| 36.3| 21.5| 37.4| 1.0| 3.0| 0.7| 2.0| 62.9| -37340|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|66 | 8571| 36.6| 20.3| 38.4| 0.9| 3.1| 0.7| 1.8| 64.9| -56327|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|68 | 7748| 37.0| 19.0| 39.3| 0.9| 3.2| 0.6| 1.7| 66.9| -66358|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|70 | 6290| 37.8| 18.2| 39.4| 0.8| 3.2| 0.5| 1.6| 68.9| -38921|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|72 | 5120| 39.9| 17.2| 38.5| 0.8| 3.2| 0.4| 1.4| 70.9| 27244|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|74 | 3733| 42.3| 16.9| 36.7| 0.7| 3.1| 0.4| 1.4| 72.9| 82044|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|76 | 2728| 45.4| 16.7| 34.1| 0.6| 2.9| 0.3| 1.2| 74.9| 122960|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|78 | 1601| 47.0| 17.5| 31.8| 0.8| 2.6| 0.3| 1.2| 76.9| 97990|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|80 | 782| 45.6| 19.4| 31.8| 0.6| 2.3| 0.2| 1.4| 78.9| 41570|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|82 | 389| 42.1| 22.7| 32.0| 1.0| 1.9| 0.2| 1.5| 80.7| 14551|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|84 | 206| 32.4| 27.6| 37.7| 0.9| 1.3| 0.2| 1.6| 82.9| -3500|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|86 | 150| 33.8| 26.8| 36.3| 1.9| 1.1| 0.2| 1.6| 84.9| -1153|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|88 | 89| 32.7| 25.8| 38.5| 1.4| 1.5| 0.2| 1.9| 86.8| -1592|
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Summary of votes by Invalid votes
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|Invalid |Polling | | | | | | | | | |
|votes % |stations| PAN % | APM % | PBT % | NA % | ASDC % |NonReg %| Null % |Total % | LEAD |
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|0 | 8248| 39.1| 22.1| 34.6| 0.9| 2.6| 0.6| 0.0| 57.8| 102725|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|1 | 20701| 42.8| 17.6| 35.1| 0.8| 3.1| 0.6| 0.6| 65.1| 579092|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|2 | 39120| 36.7| 20.2| 38.4| 0.9| 3.1| 0.7| 1.4| 60.8| -216315|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|3 | 28838| 35.0| 23.7| 36.7| 1.1| 2.7| 0.8| 2.4| 57.0| -156046|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|4 | 15307| 34.1| 27.4| 34.2| 1.1| 2.3| 0.9| 3.4| 54.3| -4402|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|5 | 8015| 32.6| 30.5| 32.9| 1.3| 2.0| 0.8| 4.4| 52.7| -6436|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|6 | 4075| 31.2| 32.9| 32.3| 1.3| 1.6| 0.8| 5.4| 51.5| -10859|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|7 | 2227| 29.8| 34.3| 32.5| 1.3| 1.4| 0.7| 6.4| 51.2| -13964|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|8 | 1397| 28.8| 35.0| 32.6| 1.4| 1.5| 0.7| 7.4| 50.8| -11756|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|9 | 899| 29.0| 36.6| 30.8| 1.4| 1.5| 0.6| 8.4| 50.8| -3501|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|10 | 555| 28.2| 36.9| 31.0| 1.6| 1.7| 0.6| 9.4| 50.2| -3145|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|11 | 405| 26.1| 38.2| 32.1| 1.5| 1.5| 0.6| 10.4| 49.6| -5016|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|12 | 276| 26.6| 38.9| 30.3| 1.8| 1.8| 0.6| 11.4| 49.8| -2104|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|13 | 188| 27.7| 37.6| 30.4| 1.9| 1.8| 0.6| 12.4| 49.7| -1010|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|14 | 153| 26.8| 40.2| 28.6| 2.2| 1.7| 0.5| 13.4| 48.9| -525|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|15 | 90| 27.1| 39.1| 30.0| 1.4| 1.9| 0.6| 14.4| 49.2| -477|
|----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
|16 | 70| 23.0| 40.9| 32.0| 1.9| 1.9| 0.3| 15.4| 47.2| -1046|
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