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Re: Distribución de los votos por casilla

Estuve analizando las casillas con inconsistencias. Son 11,184.
Quitando las que tienen "basura" para el PAN, PRD o PRI (para no
asumir un cero ahí) quedan 10,181. Esas casillas cubren los 32 estados
y 298 distritos (de 300), con estos resultados:
PAN: 28.54%, PRD: 34.58%, PRI 31.72%

A continuación están los datos estado por estado. Hay tres lineas por
cada estado. La primera linea tiene el nombre del estado y porcentaje
de casillas en la muestra del PREP (inconsistencias); la segunda linea
es para las inconsistentes del PREP y la tercera para las de Conteo
Distrital. Los datos de las segundas y terceras lineas están en el
orden siguiente: PAN, PRD, PRI, # casillas.

Aguascalientes 2.0%
47.07%, 19.60%, 28.08%, 25
46.77%, 21.72%, 23.56%, 1229

Baja California 2.4%
46.94%, 22.22%, 23.39%, 84
47.35%, 23.59%, 21.37%, 3551

Baja California Sur 9.9%
32.94%, 44.51%, 16.20%, 66
34.35%, 43.06%,  16.52%, 664

Campeche 10.3%
31.89%, 29.38%, 31.87%, 96
31.84%, 32.37%, 27.96%, 929

Cohahuila 6.1%
34.78%, 23.77%, 36,23%, 189
43.11%, 24.21%, 26.45%, 3094

Colima 6.6%
40.28%, 21.02%, 34.52%, 50
41.79%, 23.80%, 29.67%, 762

Chiapas 17.4%
13.11%, 41,07%, 40.19%, 831
16.92%, 43.35%, 33.58%, 4784

Chihuahua 5.9%
39.46%, 18.41%, 36.73%, 278
45.10%, 18.25%, 29.34%, 4742

Distrito Federal 1.9%
29.93%, 54.51%, 8.54%, 229
27.39%, 58.13%, 8.55%, 12235

Durango 15.7%
39.95%, 19.00%, 36.18%, 351
44.62%, 22.53%, 26.92%, 2236

Guanajuato 5.3%
53.69%, 17.28%, 22.44%, 325
58.92%, 15.37%, 18.81%, 6136

Guerrero  19.1%
10.57%, 51.84%, 32.55%, 856
16.15%, 51.43%, 26.51%, 4480

Hidalgo 5.6%
20.79%, 36.24%, 36.88%, 171
26.63%, 40.79%, 24.95%, 3056

Jalisco 4.1%
48.25%, 16.92%, 30.06%, 335
49.32%, 19.22%, 24.26%, 8110

Mexico 2.0%
30.95%, 39.83%, 22.60%, 307
31.07%, 43.31%, 18.12%, 15555

Michoacan 12.6%
25.46%, 45.83%, 24.45%, 684
34.49%, 41.17%, 18.94%, 5427

Morelia 14.5%
29.72%, 44.44%, 17.25% 30
31.92%, 44.11%, 15.65%, 2067

Nayarit  15.2%
16.50%, 36.65%, 39.61%, 212
18.89%, 41.82%, 33.70%, 1395

Nuevo Leon 3.1%
38.09%, 15.51%, 39.32%, 158
48.89%, 15.96%, 27.61%, 5066

Oaxaca 13.8%
13.91%, 42.08%, 39.04%, 619
16.77%, 45.96%, 31.72%, 4493

Puebla 4.7%
29.50%, 28.83%, 34.63%, 285
37.49%, 32.24%, 23,19%, 6037

Queretaro 4.6%
42.57%, 24.66%, 26.42%, 83
48.91%, 24.27%, 20.17%, 1807

Quintana Roo 6.3%
21.43%, 42.96%, 31.75%, 73
28.90%, 38.33%, 27.24%, 1154

San Luis Potosi 11.2%
42.53%, 18.34%, 30.83%, 347
48.58%, 21.53%, 21.81%, 3094

Sinaloa 22.2%
35.96%, 25.39%, 34.42%, 953
37.06%, 30.77%, 26.87%, 4300

Sonora 9.8%
45.55%, 27.08%, 22.39%, 295
50.12%, 25.70%, 18.77%, 3011

Tabasco 19.7%
3.16%, 56.39%, 37.79%, 475
3.51%, 56.28%, 37.81%, 2408

Tamaulipas 8.7%
36.64%, 22.73%, 35.82%, 347
41.29%, 26.47%, 25.93%, 3971

Tlaxcala 2.2%
34.07%, 42.49%, 16.20%, 28
34.16%, 44.00%, 14.55%, 1255

Veracruz 9.7%
33.36%, 33.66%, 28.52%, 890
34.21%, 35.23%, 24.73%, 9185

Yucatan 11.2%
44.51%, 12.78%, 39.58%, 241
46.17%, 15.86%, 32.96%, 2157

Zacatecas 11.2%
23.87%, 35.87%, 35.27%, 268
31.95%, 35.62%, 24,44%, 2398

Me tiene muy intrigado el por qué en Durango con una muestra del 15.7%
de las casillas hay un error en la "predicción" de votos para el PRI
de casi 10%, mientras que con una muestra del apenas 1.9% en el
Distrito Federal logra predecir el resultado del PRI con un error de
0.01%

--
Gerardo Horvilleur
xxx@xxx.xxx.xxx
5813-0830